SPACE-TIME MODELLING WITH LONG-MElVIORY DEPENDENCE: ASSESSING IRELAND'S WIND POWER RESOURCE

We consider estimation of the long-term average power output from a wind turbine generator at a site for which little data on wind speeds is available. Long..termrecords of wind speeds at the twelve synoptic meteorological stations are also used. Inference is based on a simple and parsimonious approximating model which accounts for the main features of wind speeds in Ireland, namely seasonal.effects, spatialicorrel~tipn, shP~"tn~InRrytetnpo11l1atlt9¢()lT~iatiRP, an£! lon,g-metn()~telnpo~.i·.d~~~<i~nce .••Itsynthesises.deseasonali~ation" ·kri.girlg, A.R.MA;InOd.~lling;andfractionaldifferencing in a natural way. A simple kriging estimator performs wen as a point estimator, and good interval estimators result from the The resulting procedure is easy to apply in practice.